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📦 WP-125 — exp(ptl): Pose-smoke tier

Research log · Phase 12 — Keypoint detection, v0.5.0

🔗 Depends on WP-124, WP-132 · Needed by WP-126, WP-136, WP-141

⬅️ WP-124 · Roadmap · WP-126 ➡️

WP-125 — the flow beats its own control, at nano scale too

R14's mechanism claim is that RLE's learned residual density buys real accuracy over the reparameterization, the sigmoid-bounded per-point scale and the log sigma_hat Jacobian it ships alongside — not that those three alone do the work. That claim needed a paired run differing only in the flow, which is what WP-135 built (LaplaceNLLLoss, R14 Table 7's own published control) and this row reads.

Both arms: pose_nano_smoke.yaml / pose_nano_smoke_laplace_nll.yaml, byte-identical but for keypoint_loss, nano variant, 50 epochs, COCO person_keypoints_{train,val}2017, same seed. RLE is Lightning run version_11; Laplace-NLL is version_14 (two false starts, version_12/version_13, 11 seconds apart — each wrote only the TensorBoard writer's own opening record and nothing else, no config.yaml, no step, before exiting; the cause is not in what synced to Drive). Both scored with the identical lucid-eval pass, EMA weights, full val2017 split:

RLE (version_11) Laplace-NLL (version_14)
e2e OKS AP 0.2738 0.2527
e2e OKS AP50 0.6094 0.5692
e2e OKS AP75 0.2138 0.1933
nms OKS AP 0.2688 0.2525
e2e box mAP 0.5030 0.4471

RLE beats the ablation on every OKS statistic, both decode paths — a 8.3% relative gap on e2e OKS AP (0.2738 vs 0.2527), same sign as R14 Table 7's own 70.5-vs-67.4 AP (4.5% relative) at full COCO scale and full training budget. The absolute figures are not R14's — nano width, 50 epochs and no pretraining put a floor under both arms nothing here controls for — but the acceptance this row was scoped to is the mechanism's direction of effect, and a paired run differing only in keypoint_loss shows the flow term earning a real, consistent margin rather than none or a reversed one. keypoint_flip_pairs ran live in both arms — A64 was already resolved by WP-132's own reading of the training path, and this row is the first to exercise that resolved pairing at tier scale rather than through overfit-100's augmentation-off gate. keypoint_gain = 1.0 (A68) trained a real pose head in both arms to a checkpoint that beats its own control rather than one swamped by or swamping the detection objective — the first evidence either way past a memorization-scale run, though the gain's own tuned adequacy stays unmeasured and A68 stays open on that question.